WHY THE MAGHREB MATTERS: THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND OPTIONS FOR EFFECTIVE AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT IN NORTH AFRICA
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Economic model analysis suggests that a
fullfledged free trade area among the Maghrebi countries would yield a gain in total merchandise trade of some $1 billion. Even this modest figure would almost double the extent of commercial relations within the region and might pave the way for a future deepening of ties.
FTAs between the EU or the US and the major Maghrebi countries would generate even lbarger gains. Based on gravity model (GM) calculations, total
Maghrebi trade would expand by $4 to $5 billion (3.0 to 4.5 percent) if the EU and the US separately establish FTAs with the UMA countries, and by nearly $9 billion (nearly 8 percent) if both establish regional FTAs with the UMA countries. In terms of a possible EU‐US‐Maghreb FTA, total Maghrebi inward foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks would increase by $5.8 billion (75 percent), and total Maghrebi outward FDI stocks would rise by $3.9 billion; both the US and European economies stand to benefit from enhanced integration with the Maghreb region as well. If the agreements depicted
in these scenarios are implemented, the trade and FDI impacts of Maghrebi economic integration can be expected to materialize over horizons of 2 to 5 years.
http://www.potomacinstitute.org/publications/studies/NorthAfricaPolicyPaper033109.pdf
